[蒂娜诗篇]8.6 亿美元转移至交易所的比特币价格预测——预示着即将出现大规模抛售？
随着加密货币市场进入又一周的交易，比特币（BTC）小幅下跌至 41,978 美元，周日跌幅近 50%。这一举措恰逢价值约 8.6 亿美元的大量比特币被转移到交易所，这可能表明即将出现潜在的大规模抛售。
雪上加霜的是，Coinbase 要求明确的加密货币监管遭到拒绝后，将在法庭上与美国证券交易委员会对峙，导致行业内的紧张局势升级。
@intotheblock 指出，#Bitcoin 本周停滞在 42,000 美元左右，因为投资者将 8.6 亿美元的 BTC 转移到交易所，这表明获利了结。尽管出现短期回调，但一场“完美风暴正在酝酿”。一位专家表示，2024 年。https://t.co/rb0zHKkVGQ
— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) 2023 年 12 月 16 日
与此同时，贝莱德已在四个不同场合与美国证券交易委员会就其现货比特币 ETF 的申请进行讨论，突显了该领域日益增长的兴趣和审查。
在这一切之中，比特币生态系统内的三个网络推动者正在被忽视，这可能为意想不到的市场动态奠定基础。
让我们更深入地探讨这一点。
Coinbase 与 SEC：监管清晰度之战
令人惊讶的是，Coinbase Global 要求监管明确的请愿被美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 拒绝的消息帮助推高了比特币的价格。
尽管监管受挫，市场参与者似乎仍将这一发展视为比特币领域韧性的证据。
鉴于比特币已经表现出改善的迹象，投资者可能会将针对美国证券交易委员会的法律挑战视为解决监管问题的一步。
突发新闻：SEC 和主席 Gary Gensler 驳回了 Coinbase 的规则制定请愿书 https://t.co/qp8CkdU0r5
— Blockworks (@Blockworks_) 2023 年 12 月 15 日
Coinbase 通过法律渠道寻求进一步明确性，这增强了一些交易者的信心，这对比特币的价格产生了积极影响。
由于加密货币市场充满活力，投资者应继续对任何可能预示市场变化的事件保持警惕。
贝莱德寻求比特币 ETF：与 SEC 的深入对话
全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德已四次与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）会面，讨论其关于现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的提议。这些会议的主要议题是纳斯达克提议的规则变更，以列出和交易 iShares 比特币信托的股票。
最近，SEC 还与 Hashdex、Fidelity、Franklin Templeton 和 Grayscale Investments 就其现货比特币 ETF 的申请进行了讨论。
大突破
贝莱德昨晚与美国证券交易委员会举行了另一次会议。 pic.twitter.com/1qrMO13SWr
— BITCOINLFG® (@bitcoinlfgo) December 16, 2023
Notably, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the regulatory body is reassessing spot Bitcoin ETF submissions in light of recent court decisions. This has increased expectations that the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, positively influencing Bitcoin’s price.
According to Bloomberg analysts, there is a 90% chance that the proposal will be approved by January 10. Such approval could lead to increased investor optimism and potentially boost demand for Bitcoin.
Under the Radar: Three Overlooked BTC Network Movers
As the main driver of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be the market leader, attracting considerable attention. To assess Bitcoin’s performance and growth, investors closely monitor several parameters beyond standard indicators like those on CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin’s Total Hashrate Regains Upward Momentum Alongside Hash Price Rise
Barring any major shifts in the coming week, Bitcoin’s difficulty is poised for an upswing. Projections based on current data suggest an increase ranging from 1.64% to 4.5% on Dec. 23. According to data…
— Samantha Renolds (@SamanthaRenolds) December 17, 2023
Three important on-chain indicators demonstrate its dynamics.
First, according to the distribution of addresses based on holding duration, 69.23% of all addresses are ‘Holders,’ meaning they have retained Bitcoin for more than a year. This group significantly outnumbers ‘Traders’ (6.78%), who hold for at least three months, and ‘Cruisers’ (23.99%), who sell frequently.
Second, the hashrate—a proxy for Bitcoin’s network difficulty—is crucial. On September 1, the hashrate was 368,924,260.618 TH/s, and it has currently risen to 493,313,217.742 TH/s. A higher hashrate not only enhances network security but also indirectly contributes to the asset’s scarcity.
Lastly, the exchange net flow, which is currently a negative $62.57 million, indicates a net outflow from exchanges. This trend could reduce selling pressure and improve sentiment surrounding Bitcoin’s price. These measurements might be viewed positively by investors, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin, the forerunner of the cryptocurrency market, is trading at $42,375 today, with a substantial 24-hour trading volume of $17.26 billion.
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s pivot point is at $41,735, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We observe immediate resistance at $42,885, followed by higher resistance levels at $44,738 and $46,020.
#BitcoinUpdate: BTC trades at $42,375 with a 0.17% uptick.
Key levels to watch:
Pivot: $41,735
Resistances: $42,885, $44,738, $46,020
Supports: $40,700, $39,775, $38,350 RSI at 43, hinting neutrality.
Above $41,735? Bullish trend ahead! #CryptoNews #BTCForecast
— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) December 17, 2023
相反，直接支撑位于 40,700 美元（38.2% 斐波那契水平），进一步支撑位于 39,775 美元（50% 斐波那契水平）和 38,350 美元（61.8% 斐波那契水平）。
相对强弱指数 (RSI) 目前为 43，表明市场情绪中性。该数字表明既没有超买也没有超卖，但可能倾向于看跌情绪。
50 天指数移动平均线 (EMA) 位于 42,300 美元，与比特币当前价格密切相关，表明潜在的短期看涨趋势。
图表分析显示，比特币的上升趋势线支撑在 41,735 美元大关附近。烛台收盘价低于该趋势线或枢轴点区域可能会引发看跌势头，推动价格升至 50% 或 61.8% 斐波那契水平。
总之，比特币在 41,735 美元上方的整体趋势似乎看涨。短期预测表明，比特币可能会在未来几天测试阻力位，特别是如果它维持在枢轴点和 50 EMA 之上的话。
然而，投资者应对低于这些关键水平的任何变化保持警惕，这可能表明市场情绪发生变化。